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URA releases flash estimate of 1st Quarter 2024 private residential property price index

 

• Price and sales momentum in the private residential market slowed, with lower growth in overall residential price index of 1.5% in 1st Quarter 2024 compared to the 2.8% gain in the preceding quarter, and a 20% quarter-on-quarter decline in sale transaction volume. This continues the trend of declining transaction volume, where total yearly transaction volume for 2023 was already the lowest since 2016.

• The Government Land Sales supply for private housing was increased further in 1H2024, with the release of 5,450 units compared to 5,160 units in 2H2023 and 4,090 units in 1H2023. This is the highest supply on the Confirmed List in a single GLS Programme since the 2H2013 GLS Programme. The increased private housing supply from the GLS programme will be ready for sales launch in the coming year or so, to cater to demand and help keep prices in line with economic fundamentals.

• The economic outlook is subject to uncertainties, particularly stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflicts that could precipitate negative global supply and demand shocks. Domestic mortgage rates are expected to remain at levels that are elevated relative to the low levels seen over the past decade. Households should continue to exercise prudence when taking on new financial commitments including long-term mortgage debt servicing obligations.

 
  Published: 01 April 2024

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released the flash estimate of the price index for private residential properties for 1st Quarter 2024 today.

Overall, the flash estimate of the private residential property price increased on a quarter-on-quarter basis by 1.5% in 1st Quarter 2024, moderating from the 2.8% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A [PDF, 43kb] and Annex B [PDF, 99kb]). Sale transaction volume fell by about 20% on a quarter-on-quarter basis and by about 16% on a year-on-year basis in 1st Quarter 20241.

Prices of non-landed properties increased by 1.0% in 1st Quarter 2024, compared to the 2.3% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of non-landed properties in the Outside Central Region (OCR) increased by 0.4%, a significant moderation from the 4.5% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of non-landed properties in the Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) increased by 3.1% and 0.2% respectively, compared to the 3.9% increase and 0.8% decrease in the previous quarter (see Annex C [PDF, 149kb]).

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up till mid-March. The statistics will be updated on 26 April 2024 when URA releases its full set of real estate statistics for 1st Quarter 2024. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly prices changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.


1 Sale transaction volume (up to mid-March) totalled 3,482 in 1st Quarter 2024, compared to 4,334 in 4th Quarter 2023 and 4,121 in 1st Quarter 2023

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