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URA releases flash estimate of 4th Quarter 2023 private residential property price index

 

• Overall private residential price index flash estimate increased by 2.7% in 4th Quarter 2023, mainly driven by sales transactions at selected newly-launched projects. For 2023 as a whole, the private residential price index increased at a slower pace of 6.7%, compared to 8.6% in 2022. This was the second consecutive year of moderation in the index increase.

• Sales of private residential properties continued to moderate in 4th Quarter 2023, with private housing sale transaction volume decreasing by about 27% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The total transaction volume in 2023 is at its lowest level in seven years, since 2016. 

• The Government has ramped up housing supply via the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. The Confirmed List supply of private housing in the GLS Programme has been increased significantly by around 50% to 9,250 units in 2023, from 6,290 units in 2022. In 1H2024, the GLS supply injection will be increased further, with the release of 5,450 units compared to 5,160 units in 2H2023 and 4,090 units in 1H2023. This is the highest supply on the Confirmed List in a single GLS Programme since the 2H2013 GLS Programme. The increased private housing supply from the GLS programme will be ready for sales launch in the coming year or so, to cater to purchase demand and help keep prices in line with economic fundamentals. 

• Global economic activity is expected to ease further into 2024, with domestic mortgage rates at elevated levels. Households should continue to exercise prudence when taking on new financial commitments including long-term mortgage debt servicing obligations. 

  Published: 02 January 2024

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released the flash estimate of the price index for private residential properties for 4th Quarter 2023 today.

Overall, the flash estimate of the private residential property price index increased on a quarter-on-quarter basis by 2.7% in 4th Quarter 2023, bringing the price gain for the whole of 2023 to 6.7% (see Annex A [PDF, 124 kb] and Annex B [PDF, 104 kb]). This represents a moderation from the 8.6% increase in 2022. Sale transaction volume fell by about 27% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. For the whole of 2023, sale transaction volume fell by about 15% compared to 20221. This was the lowest annual sale transaction volume since 2016. 

Prices of non-landed properties rose by 2.2% in 4th Quarter 2023, mainly driven by sales transactions at selected newly-launched projects. For the whole of 2023, prices of non-landed properties increased by 6.5%, moderating from the 8.1% increase in 2022. Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) increased by 2.1% and 2.7% respectively in 2023, moderating from the respective increase of 4.8% and 9.7% in 2022 (see Annex C [PDF, 110 kb]). 

The Government has further ramped up the supply of private housing on the Confirmed List to 5,450 units for the 1H2024 GLS Programme from 5,160 units in 2H2023. This is the highest supply on the Confirmed List in a single GLS Programme since the 2H2013 GLS Programme. This supply injection will bring the total pipeline supply of private housing to about 59,100 units, comprising 41,900 units with planning approval and 17,200 units from GLS sites and awarded en-bloc sites that have not been granted planning approval yet. Of these, about 39,700 units will be completed between 2023 and 2025, which is about double the 20,000 units completed from 2020 to 2022. This forms part of the total supply of about 100,000 public and private housing units to be completed between 2023 and 2025, which will cater to housing demand in the immediate years ahead and promote market stability.

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up till mid-December 2023. The statistics will be updated on 26 January 2024 when URA releases its full set of real estate statistics for 4th Quarter 2023. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly prices changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.


Sale transaction volume (up to mid-December) totalled 3,800 in 4th Quarter 2023, compared to 5,201 in 3rd Quarter 2023. Sales transaction volume (up to mid-December) totalled 18,510 in 2023, compared to 21,890 in 2022.
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